Like Father, Like Son - North Korea's latest deadly aggression can probably be blamed on the leadership succession from the fast-fading Kim Jong-il to his callow third son.
The completely inexperienced Kim Jong-un, thought to be 27 or 28 years old, was promoted from civilian to four-star general in a single day two months ago.
Yesterday's attack on South Korea appears to be his blooding. The fear is that it will not be his last as he and his father seek to unify the regime and the people around his claim to lead the nuclear-armed rogue state.
But for a solution, the world looks not to the Dear Leader, who himself committed acts of aggression against South Korea in his own succession blooding in the 1980s.
Nor does the world look to his juvenile heir, who has been lauded in North Korea as the "Bright Comrade" or "Bright Leader." The best hope for some grown-up supervision is the regime's only big ally, China. US-led international sanctions have proved ineffective in restraining North Korea.
Can China prove itself to be a responsible great power in the Asia-Pacific, or will it allow its junior ally to wage a Cold War-style proxy war against South Korea, a principal ally of the US?
It is a deadly serious test. This attack is "one of the gravest incidents since the end of the Korean War" in 1953, a war which technically never ended, according to the UN secretary-general, former South Korean foreign minister Ban Ki Moon.
The completely inexperienced Kim Jong-un, thought to be 27 or 28 years old, was promoted from civilian to four-star general in a single day two months ago.
Yesterday's attack on South Korea appears to be his blooding. The fear is that it will not be his last as he and his father seek to unify the regime and the people around his claim to lead the nuclear-armed rogue state.
But for a solution, the world looks not to the Dear Leader, who himself committed acts of aggression against South Korea in his own succession blooding in the 1980s.
Nor does the world look to his juvenile heir, who has been lauded in North Korea as the "Bright Comrade" or "Bright Leader." The best hope for some grown-up supervision is the regime's only big ally, China. US-led international sanctions have proved ineffective in restraining North Korea.
Can China prove itself to be a responsible great power in the Asia-Pacific, or will it allow its junior ally to wage a Cold War-style proxy war against South Korea, a principal ally of the US?
It is a deadly serious test. This attack is "one of the gravest incidents since the end of the Korean War" in 1953, a war which technically never ended, according to the UN secretary-general, former South Korean foreign minister Ban Ki Moon.
The regime in Pyongyang claimed that it had been provoked by South Korea's big military manoeuvres, a pre-announced, annual 70,000 man exercise that included artillery test fire into the sea. North Korea claims its neighbour's shells fell on its side of the sea border, while South Korea says that it fired only into its own territorial waters.
Pyongyang reacted not by firing into the waters controlled by its rival, but took aim at the island from which South Korea fired. In other words, it was a calculated escalation - the island of of Yeonpyeong hosts a 1000-man military base but also 1900 civilians. Two South Korean troops were killed and 13 wounded, according to Seoul, but also three civilians.
This is not an isolated incident but part of a series of North Korean acts of provocation, evidently tied directly to the ailing Kim Jong-il's decision to accelerate the rise of the "Bright Leader."
In March, Pyongyang sank unprovoked the South Korean warship the Cheonan with the death of 46 crew. Then, last weekend, the regime decided to reveal that it had built a sophisticated new uranium enrichment plant, a clear sign that it is accelerating its nuclear weapons program.
The last time there was such a studied series of high-stakes provocations was in the 1980s when Kim Jong-il was making his own claim on the succession.
At that time, North Korea blew up a helicopter, killing four South Korean Cabinet ministers, and blew up a Korean Air Lines civilian airliner.
South Korea's president Lee Myung Bak campaigned on taking a firmer line on North Korea. But while he is threatening retaliation in case of further aggression, he is showing considerable restraint. So is the US.
Can China restrain its junior ally, or are we going to see continued, calculated aggression as the Kims play out their dangerously perverted version of "Dynasty"? ( sydney morning herald )
Pyongyang reacted not by firing into the waters controlled by its rival, but took aim at the island from which South Korea fired. In other words, it was a calculated escalation - the island of of Yeonpyeong hosts a 1000-man military base but also 1900 civilians. Two South Korean troops were killed and 13 wounded, according to Seoul, but also three civilians.
This is not an isolated incident but part of a series of North Korean acts of provocation, evidently tied directly to the ailing Kim Jong-il's decision to accelerate the rise of the "Bright Leader."
In March, Pyongyang sank unprovoked the South Korean warship the Cheonan with the death of 46 crew. Then, last weekend, the regime decided to reveal that it had built a sophisticated new uranium enrichment plant, a clear sign that it is accelerating its nuclear weapons program.
The last time there was such a studied series of high-stakes provocations was in the 1980s when Kim Jong-il was making his own claim on the succession.
At that time, North Korea blew up a helicopter, killing four South Korean Cabinet ministers, and blew up a Korean Air Lines civilian airliner.
South Korea's president Lee Myung Bak campaigned on taking a firmer line on North Korea. But while he is threatening retaliation in case of further aggression, he is showing considerable restraint. So is the US.
Can China restrain its junior ally, or are we going to see continued, calculated aggression as the Kims play out their dangerously perverted version of "Dynasty"? ( sydney morning herald )
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