Megawati’s Brilliant Move May Turn Out to Be Double-Edged Sword for Candidate Jokowi

Megawati’s Brilliant Move May Turn Out to Be Double-Edged Sword for Candidate Jokowi - Megawati Soekarnoputri has finally announced that her party Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle will be nominating the popular governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, as presidential candidate. Lauded by many as having put aside her own ambition to run for the job, Megawati has indeed made a cornerstone decision that will please many within and outside the party known as PDI-P. However, its timing and circumstances may be a two-edged sword for Jokowi himself.

First, the announcement, no doubt to the surprise of some, came before the legislative elections, effectively demolishing the previously prevalent idea that Megawati would make up her mind about the presidential candidate only after the first poll.

The timing of her declaration was arguably Megawati’s stroke of genius, affirming her own maturing style of politics. The pre-election candidacy of Jokowi serves two purposes. One, provided the support for Jokowi from the electorate is real, it will significantly boost PDI-P’s vote gains in the legislative elections. Two, if the gains for the party turn out to be minimal, then it would be safe to assume that the overwhelming support for Jokowi as president as suggested in polls is not real.

Either way, PDI-P would have absolutely nothing to lose. If Jokowi turns out to be a phenomenal vote-getter in that he manages to secure 50-percent-plus seats in the House of Representatives, then the candidacy will proceed smoothly with the vice-presidential candidate probably coming from the party itself.

This would be the best scenario for the party, for a majority in parliament would ensure maximum support for the new president. It would also dispense with the often complicated and troublesome coalitions that have been a trademark of Indonesian politics for the past decade.

The second-best scenario would be for the PDI-P to pass the 20-percent mark in the legislative elections, thereby enabling the party to nominate its own presidential candidate in coalition with other parties.

These two scenarios are made possible by the flexibility of Megawati’s announcement; which only names Jokowi as presidential candidate. The conspicuous absence of a vice-presidential candidate has indeed left room for PDI-P itself for further maneuvers based on the results of the legislative elections.

Should the third, “worst-case” scenario” occur, in the sense that Jokowi’s nomination has no notable effect on the party’s performance in the legislative elections, Megawati and some of the governor’s own detractors within PDI-P could simply use the result to jettison Jokowi or perhaps relegate him to vice-presidential candidate instead.

In short, the timing of the announcement is indeed an incontrovertible test for the popularity of Jokowi as presidential candidate, as well as an iron-clad maneuver for PDI-P to ensure the best outcome for the party in the legislative election. Yet, by accepting the challenge, Jokowi has also taken an enormous political risk for himself.

The circumstances surrounding the official declaration are also noteworthy. Firstly, Jokowi himself admitted that he had been given a “mandate” by party chief Megawati to run for president.

By the sheer history and nature of the declaration, it may be safe to assume that Megawati will not easily let Jokowi forget that his presidency, if it does occur, owes partly to the mandate she had granted him.

In this, it may also be safe to assume that Megawati plans to take an active role in government and to oversee the work of the person she has given this mandate to. While this may benefit Jokowi in having a former president as his mentor, it may also give rise to problems if the two do not see eye to eye.

It is also interesting that Megawati has chosen the month of March in which to announce Jokowi’s candidacy, even more curious when one considers that March 14 is not that far away from March 11.

The date reminds us of the past ill-fated and controversial Supersemar (11 March Decree), issued by President Sukarno, Megawati’s father, in 1965 for the then-Maj.-Gen. Suharto. The latter used the decree to eventually strip Sukarno of his power and rule in his stead. Naturally Megawati would want to avoid the 11th now, considering what happened to her father.

Does the new March 14 Decree for Jokowi represent Megawati’s mandate to Jokowi to do whatever is necessary to restore order to Indonesia? Time will undoubtedly provide us with the answer.

Johannes Nugroho is a writer and businessman from Surabaya. He can be contacted at johannes@nonacris.com.

This article originally appeared in : Megawati’s Brilliant Move May Turn Out to Be Double-Edged Sword for Candidate Jokowi | thejakartaglobe.com | By Johannes Nugroho on 05:58 pm Mar 16, 2014